Thursday, October 16, 2014

Putin’s Choice: World Revolution, not World War

By Irina Severin

Putin’s threat of chaos on the Eurasian continent should be taken seriously

According to Putin's press secretary Dmitri Peskov,  “at the ASEM Summit in Milan, Vladimir Putin expressed his regret at the increasing potential for conflict in Eurasia, the growth of negative trends like revolutions and so on. Putin also stressed that this will lead to the collapse of entire regions, to disastrous consequences for several countries."

For those who understand Putin’s language, it is clear that this was not a passive expression of concern and some observations. This was a direct threat to create chaos on the continent, sent to the leaders of Eurasia.  

How realistic is threatening the neighbors with chaos, being restrained by the sanctions and economy, dependent on the plummeting oil prices? Well, it seems to be realistic in the Russians' view. 

Another remarkable statement made by the Permanent Representative of Russia to NATO, Alexander Grushko, and quoted by the "Russia 24, coincided in time and echoed Putin’s threat: "Today the world is experiencing a serious period of transformation. Eventually, when it is completed, we will see an entirely different balance of power, in which Russia will occupy the central place. "

What is this Russia’s enigmatic global strategy which will let it suddenly occupy the central place in the world? What ideology is behind this strategy? What religion feeds this aplomb? What are the means to achieve it?  

To understand this, first, it is necessary to realize what happens in Ukraine, where Russia already managed to increase "the conflict potential,” organize a “revolution,” and “collapse the entire region.”

"World Revolution, Not War"

In Russia’s asymmetrical war, the military force is used for demonstrative assaults with the purpose of terror - a way to make the enemy more controllable and inclined to make concessions necessary to Putin.  However, Russia’s global strategy is not a world war, as Putin pretends to scare the West with Russian weapons. Russia is too weak for this, and the real war is too expensive. Russia does not have allies to win a world war.  Russia’s strategy is a world revolution, creating global chaos, which is seen by Putin as an opportunity for reshaping the world in Russia’s favor.  However, Russia likes to blame the U.S. for such a strategy as a way to confuse the enemy and shift responsibility to the opposite side. 

The author of the concept is a Russian religious and political thinker of 20-s century Ivan Ilyin who laid it down in the article “World revolution, not war.” Ilyin is known as an apologist of Russian fascism and Putin’s favorite philosopher, whom he often quotes in his speeches and, as practice shows, whose suggestions he uses.
"The Soviets are not capable of a big war now. The army is not ready. The military industry is also not ready. The food issue is difficult in the country. Foreign aid, so significant in the Second World War, will not be. To localize the war, limiting it to one front, as it was possible to do in 1941-1945, is unthinkable.  Air attacks will begin from everywhere. The fronts will be several and moreover quite distant from each other (the West, Turkey, Persia, the Far East). 
The people are tired and exsanguinated. Moods in a disappointed country are unfavorable. The ranks of the NKVD were thinned out during the war, and the demand for "experienced" and faithful agents increased dramatically: they are needed everywhere - from Finland to Albania, and in China, and in Korea and throughout Western Europe, where the Germans badly shredded the agency staff, but the upbringing of an experienced agent after Beria takes ten years. 

In view of all this, the pressure of the revolution will continue everywhere, but only to the brink of a great war. The plan of the Soviets: a world revolution, and not a world war. However, of course, with the eternal simulation of the ready attack and with defiant provocations brought to extremes."

Putin’s world revolution

The West should take seriously Putin’s threat of “increasing potential for conflict in Eurasia, the growth of negative trends, revolutions and so on” and “collapse of the entire regions and disastrous consequences,” voiced in Milan. Putin works hard to achieve these goals for years. Russian political technologists notice: “Everything is notched already. It is enough to slightly push, and everything will collapse at once into chaos”.  

 Why does Putin do this?  One of the reasons is the fact that the West allows this by not reacting to Putin’s mischiefs because it is unable even to recognize them.  This offers Putin a feeling of control on which he is dependent. Also, this is Putin's revenge for Russia’s chronic economic backwardness, even if this is his aware choice. But the root of neglecting the development of Russia is the Kremlin's deeply ingrained belief that Moscow should rule the world.

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